Experiment betting is the practice of having team members predict which variant will win an A/B test before results are available, typically using virtual currency stakes to create engagement.

Definition

Experiment betting (also called experiment prediction or A/B test betting) is a gamification technique where product teams wager virtual coins on which variant they believe will outperform others in an A/B test.

Key characteristics:

Uses virtual currency with no monetary value

Predictions are made before experiment results are known

Correct predictions earn rewards from a shared pool

Leaderboards track prediction accuracy over time

How Experiment Betting Works

Step 1: Experiment Announcement

When a new A/B test launches, it's announced to the team (typically via Slack). The announcement includes:

The hypothesis being tested

A description of each variant

The primary metric being measured

The betting deadline

Step 2: Placing Bets

Team members allocate virtual coins to the variant they believe will win. Most systems use pool-based betting where:

All bets go into a shared pool

Winners split the pool proportionally to their wager

This creates natural incentives for thoughtful predictions

Step 3: Waiting Period

After the betting window closes, the experiment runs until it reaches statistical significance. During this time, predictions are locked.

Step 4: Resolution

When the experiment concludes:

The winning variant is determined by the experimentation platform

Virtual currency is distributed to correct predictors

Results are shared with the team

Leaderboards are updated

Why Teams Use Experiment Betting

Increases Engagement

Most A/B test results go unread. When team members have predictions at stake, they actively follow results.

Builds Product Intuition

Over time, making predictions develops better instincts about what works for users. Team members learn to think critically about hypotheses.

Creates Visibility

Experiment betting makes the entire team aware of what's being tested. This prevents siloed experimentation.

Encourages Experimentation

When experiments become engaging, teams run more of them. Higher experiment velocity drives faster learning.

Virtual Currency vs Real Money

Experiment betting uses virtual currency exclusively. This is important for several reasons:

Legal compliance: Real-money betting would create gambling regulations issues in most jurisdictions.

Inclusion: Virtual currency ensures everyone can participate equally regardless of personal financial situation.

Focus on learning: The goal is building product intuition, not financial gain.

Workplace appropriate: Virtual currency keeps the activity professional and appropriate for work settings.

Best Practices

Set Clear Betting Windows

Give teams 24-48 hours to place bets after an experiment is announced. This provides time for thoughtful consideration without delaying experiments.

Use Pool-Based Payouts

Pool-based systems (where winners share the total pot) create better incentives than fixed odds. They reward conviction and discourage hedging.

Include Seasons

Reset leaderboards periodically (monthly or quarterly) so new team members can compete and everyone gets fresh starts.

Celebrate Learning

Highlight interesting predictions and reasoning, not just winning bets. The goal is building intuition, not gambling prowess.

Common Misconceptions

"This is just gambling"

No. Experiment betting uses virtual currency with no monetary value. It's closer to fantasy sports or prediction markets than gambling.

"It's a distraction from real work"

Actually, it increases engagement with business outcomes. Team members become more invested in understanding what works for users.

"Only data scientists should predict"

Some of the best predictors are customer-facing team members who understand user behavior intuitively. Diverse perspectives improve prediction accuracy.

Getting Started

The fastest way to implement experiment betting:

Choose a platform that integrates with your A/B testing tool
Connect your Slack workspace for notifications
Announce to your team and give everyone starting coins
Start with your next experiment - no need to wait

ExperimentBets provides a complete experiment betting system that integrates with major experimentation platforms and works entirely within Slack.

What is Experiment Betting? The Definitive Guide